Late Saturday night, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick.

I know, it doesn’t seem even remotely real. This is the most shocking sports trade of my lifetime. I can’t think of one bigger nor one more unbelievable.

The Mavericks have to know something about Doncic that we don’t. It’s being reported that his poor conditioning, weight issues and looming supermax contract were the biggest factors, but this is a young phenom who is hypercompetitive. He might very well haunt Dallas for a long time.

It’s an absolutely fascinating move. So how does this impact the Houston Rockets now and in the future?

The Rockets Couldn’t Get Luka?

The first reaction is of course, “Luka Doncic was available?!?” That leads to the inevitable question of why the Rockets didn’t get involved.

The simple answer is they didn’t know. Nobody really did — and it would not have mattered if they did.

This is a classic example of how sometimes in the NBA, it doesn’t matter how big of a treasure trove of assets you have. What matters is having the right single asset. Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison wanted Anthony Davis and that was that. The Rockets, with all their youth and picks, would not have been able to compete for Luka because they couldn’t help Harrison with his goals.

At the same time, this has to be maddening for Rockets GM Rafael Stone and the Houston front office, who have tried to position themselves for just such a trade when it became available. Doncic is 25-years old and was seen as an untouchable top-5 player, a dream target, the kind of player teams fantasize about stealing — yet the Mavericks booted him out of Dallas like a bad tenant in the dead of night. No league-wide bidding war — just unceremoniously traded while 28 other teams sat clueless, never even getting a shot at the prize.

Dallas could have had their pick of top young players and draft choices had they made this an actual competition so this trade will be questioned and second-guessed for many years to come.

Rockets Control Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick

There is a silver lining for the Rockets and that’s the control they have on Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected).

The Houston Rockets own the right to potentially receive or swap the Dallas Mavericks first-round pick in 2029.

Kyrie Irving will turn 37 years old that season and Anthony Davis will turn 36. pic.twitter.com/JTwz0PA871

— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) February 2, 2025

Dallas traded that pick to Brooklyn in the deal for Kyrie Irving in 2023. Brooklyn gave control of the pick to Houston as part of the deal to get their own picks (2025, 2026) back this past summer. So the Rockets control the best two first-round picks (unprotected) out of Phoenix, Dallas and Houston’s own first in the year 2029.

In this deal, Dallas’ core got older. Irving will turn 37 in the 2028-29 season and Davis will turn 36. This is four years away so a tremendous amount can change between now and then, but on paper it is a strong positive indicator for the value of that pick.

Keep in mind, the Rockets are unlikely to actually use this draft pick — they’re more likely to trade it to strengthen their current roster. So, what actually happens to Dallas four years from now isn’t as important as how teams around the league perceive the value of that pick right now and in the near future.

This looks like a potential win for Stone, Patrick Fertitta and the Rockets front office.

Impact on Western Conference

Both the Lakers (currently 5th seed) and Mavericks (currently 8th) are potential first-round matchups for the Rockets this postseason.

Los Angeles: The Lakers may have taken a short-term hit, but if Luka’s conditioning issues can be fixed, this trade completely revitalizes their future. Before this move, Los Angeles was still relying on a 40-year-old LeBron James with no clear path forward, especially with their draft picks already limited. Now, they’ve managed to land Doncic, who put up 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game last season at just 24 years old, in exchange for a 31-year-old Davis. That’s highway robbery.

The NBA just handed the Lakers another superstar lifeline (like Shaquille O’Neal, like Pau Gasol, like Chris “Basketball Reasons” Paul, like LeBron James, like Anthony Davis) and they took full advantage.

But right now, this is an odd fit. The Lakers have no size. More moves have to be on the way here so stay tuned on how the Rockets match up with this squad.

Dallas: Luka had been out for over a month and the Mavericks have been slipping. Dallas says they want to focus on defense and they do get that in Davis. They went from relying on two forces on the perimeter to putting the ball in Kyrie’s hands as the leader and leveraging their size in Davis, Derrick Lively (when he returns healthy) and Daniel Gafford.

The Rockets have excellent perimeter defenders, but their lack of interior rim protection makes it tough to handle Davis and any additional size next to him. This could be a real challenge for Alperen Sengun. While Sengun offensively dominated Gafford in their last matchup, he struggled against Lively — and Davis is on a whole different level.

But can Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Dillon Brooks take out the head of the snake in Kyrie? Three-point shooting efficiency will likely be the key against Dallas. I think this is a tougher matchup for Houston right now, but long term, I think this really helps the Rockets. We will find out soon as Houston faces the Mavericks (without Lively) this Saturday.

One last potentially positive note to close on: Texas is fertile ground for free agents. No state income tax and warm weather have always been draws for NBA players, so having young superstars like Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic playing for your two rivals in the state had the potential to make things problematic when recruiting players trying to win a championship. Dallas loses that draw and becomes a team with a much smaller window… and who wants to live in San Antonio over Houston?

Alperen Şengün is officially an NBA All-Star after the 22-year-old big man was named by the league’s coaches as a Western Conference reserve Thursday night.

This is Şengün’s first selection and the Rockets’ first All-Star since James Harden and Russell Westbrook in 2020. Şengün joins Moses Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Yao Ming as the only Rockets players 22 or younger to receive the honor.

“He’s obviously a very skilled player but he’s a matchup nightmare for guys,” said Rockets coach Ime Udoka after the selection. “He can kind of score and play everywhere all over the court. Just his competitiveness in general has been really good. But he’s an unselfish guy as well. Understanding it’s not going to be his night every night, teams try to take him out and (he) kind of (becomes) an initiator and hub down there to get everybody else involved. That’s the beauty of him. He can make you pay in more than one way.”

Going into the night, it was touch and go whether Şengün would make it and when you broke it down, you knew it would come down to Şengün or Domantas Sabonis. Truthfully, there was going to be a snub either way. Sabonis has better and more efficient stats but the Rockets are 32-14, the third-best record in the league. The Rockets not having an All-Star would have been a crime, so there was going to be criticism either way.

Sengun isn’t having his most efficient offensive season (54.0% true shooting), which is a surprise, but he has put in a lot of work to fit into a top-tier defense and been very key on the boards, leading the team with 10.4 caroms a night. Rebounding has been an underappreciated part of Houston’s success. To highlight that, he had 29 double-doubles last season in 63 games and he already has 28 of them in 46 games this season.

Alpi and Jalen Green are both top-25 in the NBA in drawing double teams this season, which also is a big part of how the Rockets rack up wins. Şengün’s vision, finding cutters and three-point shooters, has been instrumental as well.

So enjoy it, Houston. It’s a huge honor and hopefully it’s a sign of bigger things to come for Sengun and the Rockets.

Just before the start of the regular season, the Houston Rockets signed Jalen Green to a three-year, $105.3 million extension and Alperen Sengun to a five-year, $185 million extension, locking up two key pieces of their rebuild. These extensions eliminated any meaningful salary cap room for Houston in the summer of 2025. However, since the NBA is trending away from key players changing teams via free agency (recent examples such as Paul George and the Rockets’ own Fred VanVleet notwithstanding), Rafael Stone and his team likely viewed the extensions as worth the risk.

The Rockets have positioned themselves as one of the league’s most interesting trade teams, as they boast a unique combination of good young players, premium future draft picks, and expiring salaries. But signing Green and Sengun to those extensions made trading each of those players this season significantly more difficult.

Article VII, Section 8(g) of the 2023 NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement – you know the one! – is more commonly known as the Poison Pill Provision, which relates to the trade treatment of players recently signed to rookie scale extensions. If a recently extended player is traded prior to the July 1 in which the extension kicks in, then while the player’s outgoing salary would be the same as his then current cap figure, the player’s incoming salary to the acquiring team would instead be the *average* of the player’s then current salary and all salaries during the extension. This makes any trade made under the Poison Pill Provisions exceedingly difficult.

Using Green and Sengun as examples, their respective outgoing and incoming salaries would be:

Jalen Green
Outgoing Salary for Houston: $12.5 million
Incoming Salary for Acquiring Team: $29.5 million

Alperen Sengun
Outgoing Salary for Houston: $5.4 million
Incoming Salary for Acquiring Team: $31.7 million

These vast discrepancies in outgoing and incoming salary treatment make Green and Sengun very difficult to trade, as most NBA trades must fall within salary-matching rules. While there are possible trade scenarios involving numerous players and salaries that could allow for Green or Sengun to be traded, most of those scenarios are unrealistic and/or would involve three or more teams and the expenditure of additional assets to get those additional teams to take on salaries.

The Rockets don’t seem to have much desire to move either Green or Sengun right now. However, if they do decide to move either of them, it would most likely not be until next July, when the Poison Pill Provision is no longer applicable and those players can be traded at their new extension salaries.

It’s officially NBA Draft Week!

The weeks of speculation are coming to an end as we’ve just about arrived at the 2024 NBA Draft. The Rockets hold picks #3 and #44 and could be quite active on the trade market.

Dave Hardisty and David Weiner paired up on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the options before the Houston Rockets as they approach the June 26th NBA Draft. Is it really down to Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard as options? The pair also discuss trade-down options and whether Devin Carter could be intriguing to Ime Udoka. And are the Rockets a darkhorse for a Paul George trade?

The podcast premieres at 8:00am CT! Come join us!

CLUTCHFANS PODCAST: SPOTIFY | APPLE

The offseason is now underway.

The forecast looks good for the Houston Rockets, but… there’s pressure as well this offseason because there are a handful of other West teams that might have rosier futures. Ime Udoka wants to win and win big. As we are about five weeks away from the NBA Draft, what are the Rockets looking to do this summer?

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Rockets shockingly landing the #3 pick and their options in this draft, including Reed Sheppard, Donovan Clingan, Zaccharie Risacher, Stephon Castle, Matas Buzelis and others. They also discuss the possibility of some big game hunting in Houston.

CLUTCHFANS PODCAST: SPOTIFY | APPLE