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Houston Rockets

Shifting Perspectives on 2015-16 Salary Cap May Impact Rockets’ Immediate Plans

Cap concerns might sway the Rockets to make a move sooner rather than later. David Weiner explains why.

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Houston Rockets Salary Cap Projections

Updated: November 24, 2014

Much has been made recently about the NBA’s new national television contracts and their massive impact on the NBA’s salary cap in future years.

This season’s maximum team salary cap is $63.065 million. Several months ago (before the new TV deal was signed), the league released a projected $66.5 million salary cap for the 2015-16 season. The new deal, which does not kick in until the 2016-17 season, could increase the salary cap that year to as high as $85-90 million!

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In order to address what could be a problematic one-year spike in the salary cap, the league has proposed one or more proposals to the player’s union in order to “smooth” the salary cap increase over several seasons. This issue must be collectively bargained with the player’s union, so any failure to agree by those two sides would likely result in that one-year spike.

Changing Cap Projections

For several months (both before and after the size of the TV deals was known), many league executives have been preparing as if the 2015-16 salary cap would be artificially increased in order to reduce the year-to-year increase caused by the new TV revenues.

However, whether based on perceived resistance from the player’s union on the league’s “smoothing” proposals (one or more of which allegedly call for the salary cap to only increase at around the rate at which Basketball Related Income (BRI) has increased over the past several seasons) or on an inability for the league to come up with a “smoothing” proposal that objectively makes sense for all parties, things don’t seem to be looking very good for teams (like the Houston Rockets) hoping for a big jump in the salary cap for the 2015-16 season.

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Zach Lowe, Grantland’s lead NBA writer (and, in my opinion, the best national NBA writer in the business), wrote in a November 5 article about the increasing likelihood that the new TV deal would not lead to an increase in the salary cap for next season:

“No one knows what will happen to the cap in 2015-16 and 2016-17, the first year of the league’s mammoth new national TV contract, but the league’s most recent projections for 2015-16 remain in the range of $66 million to $68 million, per several league sources. It appears unlikely the league bakes any of the anticipated TV money into the cap figure a year early, meaning the 2015-16 cap will sit right around where the NBA had projected it.”

In a subsequent piece from November 17, Lowe reiterated this assumption:

“There is some opportunity cost in forfeited cap space this summer, assuming that the 2015-16 cap sticks around the projected $66 million–to–$68 million range. That is what almost all team executives anticipate now.”

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Potential Impact on Rockets’ Plans

The Rockets currently have about $55.9 million in guaranteed salary committed for next season (not including cap holds, incomplete roster charges and other cap considerations). However, with a beefed-up 2015-16 salary cap that includes some early incorporation of new TV money, Houston would be in position–with only a couple of minor trades–to create enough cap space to either offer a max (or at least near-max) contract to a major free agent or be able to trade for almost any player under contract (perhaps dangling that New Orleans pick on or after draft night as bait).

Unfortunately, if the cap stays at the currently-projected $66.5 million, things do not look nearly as rosy for the Rockets in 2015 free agency.

Assuming that the Rockets waive all non-guaranteed salary for next season (namely, Kostas Papanikolaou and Tarik Black), renounce their rights to Jason Terry and Francisco Garcia, keep Patrick Beverley‘s cap hold on the books (which cap hold assumes that Beverley meets the “starter criteria” enabling him to get a higher qualifying offer from Houston) and otherwise do not make any trades (I know, unlikely, but still), Houston would be in line to have less than $7.2 million in cap room next summer.

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That’s a nice amount of cap room, but it’s not enough to add that third star that Rockets GM Daryl Morey has been after since landing Dwight Howard in July 2013. The Rockets would need to clear out Trevor Ariza‘s salary (taking little to no salary back) to even approach the type of room they could create if a “smoothing” proposal were adopted. While Ariza is by no means completely “off-limits” in trade, he is an integral part of the team Houston is trying to build and is an ideal fit starting next to James Harden.

This relatively recent shift in perspective by many league executives on the projected 2015-16 salary cap may be a large factor in the Rockets’ apparent willingness to trade for Corey Brewer, whose contract includes a $4.9 million player option for next season. It could also be a reason why Houston might be trying to exert additional pressure on other teams to cough up a star (or near-star) player sooner rather than later (see Dragic, Goran).

Conclusion

Whether Morey is among those league executives starting to lose hope that a “smoothing” proposal can be swept through league and player’s union approval in time for next summer’s free agency/trade season is anyone’s guess. But if he is, then this shift could ultimately be the deciding factor in whether the Rockets choose to bite the bullet and make potentially cap-clogging moves in the next few months.

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How the Kyrie Irving Injury Impacts Rockets

Houston’s draft positioning and offseason plans could be impacted by Dallas

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Kyrie Irving Injury

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving was injured Monday night and the news dropped on Tuesday that the knee injury is serious — a torn ACL in his left knee that will end his season and a good portion of next season as well.

Brutal. I can’t think of an NBA team that imploded faster than the Dallas Mavericks.

You trade away a 25-year-old phenom who just hoisted you on his back en route to the NBA Finals a year ago. You cashed in that golden ticket to go all-in on a trio of aging stars in Kyrie, Anthony Davis, and Klay Thompson.

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Bold strategy, Nico. Let’s see if it pays off.

(Narrator: It’s not paying off.)

The Mavericks had some interesting potential this year and maybe the next couple of years once everyone was healthy, but now? Their star guard is likely out until the calendar year 2026 and Klay and AD aren’t getting any younger nor more durable. The Mavericks may have actually swapped their future for a present that never arrives — and Dallas GM Nico Harrison has to be feeling overwhelming pressure right now.

So how does this impact the Rockets?

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For starters, Houston has a game remaining on the schedule against Dallas on March 14th at Toyota Center — Davis may or may not be back for that game.

More importantly, Dallas is the 10th seed in the West at the moment, just 3.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns (11th seed). The Rockets control Phoenix’s first-round pick unprotected this season via a swap. We need as many West teams as possible ahead of Phoenix to keep them out of the play-in/playoffs and to push them as deep into the lotto as possible.

This complicates that. Phoenix’s remaining schedule is the toughest in the NBA by a good margin, with plenty of games left against the league’s best teams, so it still looks promising overall — but we’re talking about Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. They can still get hot at the right time while Dallas may struggle.

So keep a close eye on that. The good news is the Portland Trail Blazers are one of the hottest teams in the league and they are (shockingly) nipping at the Arizona squad’s heels.

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Taking a look ahead to the offseason, the Kevin Durant Pursuit will be big.

This one is a little more complicated for Houston. The Rockets really want Devin Booker but, as of now, the Phoenix plan appears to be to trade KD this offseason and retool around Booker. The Rockets will have interest in Durant but they’re not going to sell the farm (prospects and all the picks) for a 37-year old like they would for Booker.

Three teams that I’ve heard a lot about from Rockets circles that will be in the mix are Houston, Minnesota and Dallas — Timberwolves and Mavericks have been considered the main competition. But, a lot of this will depend on Durant himself and where he wants to play at this stage of his career.

Keep in mind also, if the Suns are “retooling” around Booker and Beal (holding the no-trade clause), then they could be placing a higher priority on win-now players over the return of their own draft assets. The Rockets definitely have the best assets overall to offer up in any trade package between those three teams, but if Phoenix does prefer finding the right ready-to-win players around Booker/Beal, that gives Dallas and Minnesota a real chance.

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This injury “may” take Dallas out of the equation, and they are/were definitely a contender for KD’s services given his past relationship with Kyrie and the way Dallas was positioned to win right now. Does KD at his age want to wait for Kyrie to be healthy?

And one last friendly reminder: The Rockets control that Dallas 2029 first (unprotected).

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Rockets Sign David Roddy to Two-Way Contract

Former first-round pick has played with the Grizzlies, Suns and Hawks

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David Roddy Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a move on Monday, signing former first-round pick David Roddy to a two-way contract.

The two-way spot opened up after the front office signed Jeenathan Williams to a standard four-year, $8.2 million contract (with friendly team options all along the way).

Roddy is 6-foot-5 and 250+ pounds but sports a 6-foot-11 wingspan. He was taken with the 23rd pick in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft — six selections after the Rockets drafted Tari Eason. A standout in college, Roddy averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game during his junior season at Colorado State.

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Roddy, who turns 24 later this month, is a physical player who can play multiple positions. He’s a solid rebounder for his size/position. He has played in 165 games over three seasons with the Grizzlies, Suns, Hawks and most recently Sixers, averaging 6.2 points and 2.9 rebounds per game.

The guard/forward has not shown efficient shooting, however — he’s a career 30.5% three-point shooter and just 68.4% from the line. His defense is better inside than out.

Ultimately, it will be those two things — three-point shooting and defense — that will determine his chances of carving out a consistent role in the league.

All in all, it’s a low-risk signing and the Rockets get a look at a prospect that fits their age timeline.

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Houston a potential landing spot for Ben Simmons post-buyout?

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Ben Simmons Houston Rockets

ESPN NBA analyst Brian Windhorst said on Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline show that Brooklyn Nets forward Ben Simmons is working on a buyout and the Houston Rockets is a potential landing spot for him.

“Cleveland and Houston are two situations for Ben Simmons,” said Windhorst.

Rockets coach Ime Udoka was an assistant coach in Philadelphia in 2019-20 when Simmons was with the Sixers, before injuries took a significant toll. In fact, Udoka, when speaking about Amen Thompson earlier this season, brought up some comparisons to Simmons.

“The skill set is there, and it’s something that’s unique with his speed, athleticism, size, passing ability, and all those things,” said Udoka of Thompson. “I coached somebody, Ben Simmons, who had similar traits… as far as size and ability to push the pace, and find guys and finish. There are some similarities there.”

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Both Thompson and Simmons are known for their elite athleticism, defensive versatility, and ability to create opportunities in transition.

However, can Simmons help the Rockets today? That’s the tough question.

Simmons has played in 33 games this season, averaging 6.2 points, 6.9 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks in 25 minutes a night. He does not shoot threes (like, at all) — he has only attempted two threes in the past three seasons combined.

Ideally, he does not play in front of your young forwards of Amen, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. and on that basis alone, I think I would pass. But, Ime loves defensive dogs and he could use some extra ballhandling on the roster. You can see that there’s little in the way of offensive organization when Fred VanVleet is out.

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There would be a comical full circle moment though if the Rockets did sign Ben Simmons, considering the Rockets were heavily criticized for trading James Harden in 2021 to Brooklyn instead of to Philadelphia for Simmons. The Rockets clearly made the right choice there.

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Rockets pick up another second-round pick in deal with Hawks

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Cody Zeller

The Houston Rockets are working the phones to do a little more asset management.

After acquiring a second-round pick from Boston to take on Jaden Springer’s salary, the Rockets made another similar move, absorbing the contract of Cody Zeller this season to get back a 2028 second-round pick.

Ironically, that pick is Houston’s own 2028 second-round pick that the Rockets sent to Atlanta in 2023.

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The Rockets waived Springer to make roster room for Zeller. They will likely do the same with Zeller in order to make room for a buyout signing in the coming days or weeks.

It’s a small move but it’s another good one on the margins. These second-round picks add up. The two the Rockets got in the past couple of days — Boston’s 2030 second and Houston’s own 2028 second — could be eventually combined in a deal that nets the Rockets a solid role player down the line. Houston did exactly this last season when they acquired Steven Adams from Memphis.

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So quick grade? Easy A. Solid asset management work by Rockets GM Rafael Stone and credit to Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta for being willing to spend millions just to get some extra seconds.

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Rockets Pick Up Jaden Springer, Second-Round Pick in Trade with Celtics

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Jaden Springer Houston Rockets

The NBA Trade Deadline is just over 24 hours away but the Houston Rockets have already made a move.

OK, it’s not that kind of move, but Rafael Stone and the front office did make a trade on the margins on Wednesday, picking up Jaden Springer and a 2030 second-round pick from Boston.

The Rockets leveraged their open roster spot and salary situation to take the contract of Springer off the hands of the Celtics, who are saving a ton in luxury tax payments by making the move. It’s smart business by the Rockets, who are doing this for a second-round pick in 2030.

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Now, usually a Celtics second-round pick is not worth much, but this is five years out so it’s a quality asset as far as seconds go. In today’s NBA, these kinds of picks have grown in value as key assets for being in a position to land solid role players. With the Rockets planning on being a playoff team for the next several years, this addition could prove useful in addressing future roster needs.

This trade framework between Houston and Boston may not be new to you. If you watched or listened to the ClutchFans Podcast on Monday, David Weiner, aka BimaThug, literally called out this exact possibility of the Rockets taking on Springer and landing a second-round pick.

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As for Springer himself, this was a player I liked quite a bit in the 2021 NBA Draft and I wanted the Rockets to take him at the Josh Christopher spot. He has not quite panned out just yet. He’s got good size for a point guard (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) but is not a strong playmaker and has not been incredibly accurate as a shooter (25.0% from three).

But he does have good defensive potential. Does that get Ime Udoka’s attention at all? Possibly, but the Rockets likely will get an end-of-the-bench look at him for the rest of the season before his contract expires this offseason.

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