Houston Rockets
Life after Bosh: Why matching Parsons and focusing on 2014-15 should remain a priority
It could have been perfect to land Chris Bosh, but let’s not forget that the Rockets still have options and have a very good core.
Was Friday disappointing to the Rockets? Yes. But franchise-altering, as some suggest?
It shouldn’t be.
Losing out on Chris Bosh at the 11th hour was an offseason gut punch that Houston fans know all too well. But unlike the infamous “basketball reasons” saga that nixed the Pau Gasol trade in 2011 followed by the failed Dwight Howard pursuit in 2012, it must be remembered that Daryl Morey and these Rockets are no longer playing from a weak hand.
In Howard and James Harden, the Rockets arguably have two of the NBA’s top 10 players. In the duo’s first year together, they won 54 games in a brutal Western Conference and showed significant improvement as the season went along. And after trading Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, the team has financial flexibility to upgrade its bench and return as an even more talented group in 2014-15.
There’s one wild card in the mix, though, and it’s that pesky 3-year, $46-million offer sheet that Chandler Parsons signed with Dallas. The Rockets have until 10:59 p.m. on Sunday night to decide whether to match, and after missing out on their expected addition of Bosh, it’s unclear what Morey will decide to do in their “Plan B” scenario.
In short, it boils down to one root issue: Is the current Houston roster worth going all-in for? By matching Parsons and his roughly $15 million/year salary, it would all but eliminate the possibility of the Rockets having maximum cap room for foreseeable free-agency periods. It would, however, secure Howard, Harden and Parsons as the team’s core and allow the Rockets to fully commit to finding the best role players to optimize their success, starting immediately.
It’s not as sexy as the planned All-Star roster with Bosh. But after letting the initial sting wear off, it’s time to remember that the gap between these Rockets and true contention is not “max player” wide.
In these eyes, the Rockets are too close to turn back. Here’s why:
Organic growth is coming
It’s easy to forget, but the Rockets were already poised to improve in 2014-15 simply from within. They went 54-28 (65.9%) in the first year of the Howard era, a mark that included a 21-13 (61.8%) transition period of November and December as the Rockets adjusted to having the league’s best center on both ends of the floor. Their 33-15 (68.8%) pace in 2014 would extrapolate to 56 or 57 wins over a full schedule – in other words, putting them right in the standings mix with Oklahoma City and the Los Angeles Clippers and closer to the 2/3-seed range than the 4/5/6-seed level.
Even the LeBron James-era Heat, likely the most talented free agency or trade-built team in the modern era, didn’t hit their full stride until Year 2 and Year 3. The Year 1 Heat (2010-11), even playing in the weak East, lost 24 games and weren’t a No. 1 seed. It took until 2012-13, the team that went 66-16 and reeled off 27 consecutive wins, for Miami to reach maximum efficiency.
So the idea that the current Rockets aren’t a contender because they went 54-28 in Year 1 and lost one playoff series isn’t something I’m willing to accept. Improvements in team chemistry and individual growth from young players including Harden (24), Parsons (25), Terrence Jones (22) and Pat Beverley (26) were already going to make the 2014-15 Rockets better than the 2013-14 group, regardless of any new additions. They did lose Lin and Asik from the bench, but…
Financial flexibility to improve depth
Yes, losing Lin and Asik, if looked at in a vacuum, would weaken the rotation. But the roughly $17 million in cap room they have for the next 36 hours (or staying above the cap and using the trade exceptions and other exceptions beyond that), along with a probable lottery pick from New Orleans to use as trade bait, gives the Rockets ample opportunity to actually upgrade.
Think of it this way: if Lin and Asik were on the free-agent market now, and the Rockets had $17 million to spend to upgrade their current roster, would those be your first two calls? My guess is no. Asik, for all his strengths, was limited to being a 15-to-20-minute player most nights because of the presence of Howard. Lin was an average-at-best (and wildly inconsistent) three-point shooter and turnover prone, not ideal traits for a complementary backcourt mate to Harden.
Versatile forwards and guards with legitimate three-point range and defensive skills on the perimeter are better fits for the Houston rotation than Lin and Asik, and there are several such candidates available in free agency as well as the trade market that can fit into $17 million of space.
Where Parsons fits in
It all comes back to the Parsons decision, of course. Even with $17 million in space, it would be unreasonable to expect the Rockets to fully replace the contributions of Lin, Asik and Parsons. That team would take a step back, with an organizational focus of looking ahead to 2015 free agency.
In terms of title contention, the 2014-15 season would be over before it even started, and a year of Howard’s prime would be squandered. (Think Howard would remember that in 2016 free agency?)
To me, that scenario is unacceptable, unless the Rockets believe the only realistic route to winning a championship involves acquiring a third All-Star. While it would be nice, I don’t see it as necessary. Assuming Parsons is retained, the combination of organic growth from a young core of players and bench upgrades to Lin/Asik could easily bridge the gap between the mid-50s win total the Rockets had a season ago and the upper 50s-to-60 range of legit West contenders.
Bosh may have been the perfect fit, but he’s not the only fit. The Rockets are already playing with a strong hand, and folding for the outside shot of pocket aces down the road doesn’t seem practical.
Houston Rockets
Podcast: Doncic to Lakers, Fox to Spurs and the Trade Deadline for the Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
How the stunning Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers impacts the Houston Rockets
Dallas did the unthinkable by trading their superstar – what does this mean for Houston now and in the future?
Late Saturday night, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick.
I know, it doesn’t seem even remotely real. This is the most shocking sports trade of my lifetime. I can’t think of one bigger nor one more unbelievable.
The Mavericks have to know something about Doncic that we don’t. It’s being reported that his poor conditioning, weight issues and looming supermax contract were the biggest factors, but this is a young phenom who is hypercompetitive. He might very well haunt Dallas for a long time.
It’s an absolutely fascinating move. So how does this impact the Houston Rockets now and in the future?
The Rockets Couldn’t Get Luka?
The first reaction is of course, “Luka Doncic was available?!?” That leads to the inevitable question of why the Rockets didn’t get involved.
The simple answer is they didn’t know. Nobody really did — and it would not have mattered if they did.
This is a classic example of how sometimes in the NBA, it doesn’t matter how big of a treasure trove of assets you have. What matters is having the right single asset. Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison wanted Anthony Davis and that was that. The Rockets, with all their youth and picks, would not have been able to compete for Luka because they couldn’t help Harrison with his goals.
At the same time, this has to be maddening for Rockets GM Rafael Stone and the Houston front office, who have tried to position themselves for just such a trade when it became available. Doncic is 25-years old and was seen as an untouchable top-5 player, a dream target, the kind of player teams fantasize about stealing — yet the Mavericks booted him out of Dallas like a bad tenant in the dead of night. No league-wide bidding war — just unceremoniously traded while 28 other teams sat clueless, never even getting a shot at the prize.
Dallas could have had their pick of top young players and draft choices had they made this an actual competition so this trade will be questioned and second-guessed for many years to come.
Rockets Control Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick
There is a silver lining for the Rockets and that’s the control they have on Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected).
The Houston Rockets own the right to potentially receive or swap the Dallas Mavericks first-round pick in 2029.
Kyrie Irving will turn 37 years old that season and Anthony Davis will turn 36. pic.twitter.com/JTwz0PA871
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) February 2, 2025
Dallas traded that pick to Brooklyn in the deal for Kyrie Irving in 2023. Brooklyn gave control of the pick to Houston as part of the deal to get their own picks (2025, 2026) back this past summer. So the Rockets control the best two first-round picks (unprotected) out of Phoenix, Dallas and Houston’s own first in the year 2029.
In this deal, Dallas’ core got older. Irving will turn 37 in the 2028-29 season and Davis will turn 36. This is four years away so a tremendous amount can change between now and then, but on paper it is a strong positive indicator for the value of that pick.
Keep in mind, the Rockets are unlikely to actually use this draft pick — they’re more likely to trade it to strengthen their current roster. So, what actually happens to Dallas four years from now isn’t as important as how teams around the league perceive the value of that pick right now and in the near future.
This looks like a potential win for Stone, Patrick Fertitta and the Rockets front office.
Impact on Western Conference
Both the Lakers (currently 5th seed) and Mavericks (currently 8th) are potential first-round matchups for the Rockets this postseason.
Los Angeles: The Lakers may have taken a short-term hit, but if Luka’s conditioning issues can be fixed, this trade completely revitalizes their future. Before this move, Los Angeles was still relying on a 40-year-old LeBron James with no clear path forward, especially with their draft picks already limited. Now, they’ve managed to land Doncic, who put up 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game last season at just 24 years old, in exchange for a 31-year-old Davis. That’s highway robbery.
The NBA just handed the Lakers another superstar lifeline (like Shaquille O’Neal, like Pau Gasol, like Chris “Basketball Reasons” Paul, like LeBron James, like Anthony Davis) and they took full advantage.
But right now, this is an odd fit. The Lakers have no size. More moves have to be on the way here so stay tuned on how the Rockets match up with this squad.
Dallas: Luka had been out for over a month and the Mavericks have been slipping. Dallas says they want to focus on defense and they do get that in Davis. They went from relying on two forces on the perimeter to putting the ball in Kyrie’s hands as the leader and leveraging their size in Davis, Derrick Lively (when he returns healthy) and Daniel Gafford.
The Rockets have excellent perimeter defenders, but their lack of interior rim protection makes it tough to handle Davis and any additional size next to him. This could be a real challenge for Alperen Sengun. While Sengun offensively dominated Gafford in their last matchup, he struggled against Lively — and Davis is on a whole different level.
But can Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Dillon Brooks take out the head of the snake in Kyrie? Three-point shooting efficiency will likely be the key against Dallas. I think this is a tougher matchup for Houston right now, but long term, I think this really helps the Rockets. We will find out soon as Houston faces the Mavericks (without Lively) this Saturday.
One last potentially positive note to close on: Texas is fertile ground for free agents. No state income tax and warm weather have always been draws for NBA players, so having young superstars like Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic playing for your two rivals in the state had the potential to make things problematic when recruiting players trying to win a championship. Dallas loses that draw and becomes a team with a much smaller window… and who wants to live in San Antonio over Houston?