As the Houston Rockets set to host the Phoenix Suns tonight, it seems the right time to take a look back at the trade that linked these two franchises together for the foreseeable future.
This past June, the Rockets made a trade with Brooklyn that sent back to the Nets control of their 2025 and 2026 unprotected first-round picks. In exchange, the Rockets received a large chunk of Phoenix’s future (2025, 2027, 2029) and control of the Dallas Mavericks’ 2029 first.
In essence, the Rockets traded one pick and one swap for two picks and two swaps. All unprotected.
If I’m going to discuss the current outlook of this trade, I have to be honest about how I saw it at the time of the move. While I didn’t hate this trade initially, I definitely didn’t love it either.
I liked that the Rockets increased their overall trade assets. I also liked that they extended the timeline to be able to make a bigger trade and I also appreciated that they kept control of the 2027 Brooklyn swap.
But I didn’t like that the Rockets gave up what seemed like the more established value (Brooklyn) for a more uncertain gamble (Phoenix). The Rockets did not control a “tanking runway” of picks to offer back to Phoenix — all of the picks Houston got in the deal were in staggered years (’25, ’27, ’29). I also felt Brooklyn, who badly needed to rebuild, got away with paying market value to get their picks back despite the fact that the Rockets invested years in watching those picks appreciate up to the point that they had the Nets completely over a barrel.
Net-net: I felt like more certainty was traded for less certainty and it was more of an equitable trade for both teams rather than Brooklyn paying dearly to get back the things only the Rockets could offer.
There were two ways I thought this trade could pay dividends: The Suns needed to flame out immediately, as in this season (unlikely), or the Rockets could trade all those pick assets as part of a deal for a real superstar in the next 12-18 months (more likely).
In a testament to how quickly change can occur in a very unpredictable NBA, four things have happened that have been positive indicators for the Rockets in making this move.
While Phoenix had major salary cap issues, dealing with the second apron, they didn’t appear to have problems on the court. They jumped out of the gate 8-1 and looked like a legitimate contender behind their star trio of scorers in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Given Houston controlled Phoenix’s pick this year via a swap, it looked like the Rockets would come up empty-handed on the trade this season.
That changed quickly.
Injuries, serious depth concerns and a lack of a defensive identity has sent Phoenix spiraling. Booker’s availability has been inconsistent, forcing Durant to carry the load, while Beal has not quite fit in at all. Their financial limitations, thanks to owner Mat Ishbia’s all-in spending spree, have handcuffed their ability to improve the roster around the three stars.
The Suns are sitting 11th in the West, having gone 22-34 since that hot start, and are currently trying to catch a depleted Dallas squad to get back into the play-in picture.
As of right now, the Rockets project to end up with a lottery pick (albeit a late one) this season out of the trade.
Because the Suns struggled so hard after the start, they tried to make a major move at the deadline but could not unload Beal, in large part due to his no-trade clause.
As a result, they may have made a misstep: They openly tried to trade Durant, which inevitably became public news.
Now? Durant will almost assuredly be traded this summer — likely to a destination that he handpicks. This means the Phoenix Suns will have to look at all possibilities for their future, including potentially having to give Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office a call.
But keep in mind, the Rockets can not offer Phoenix the ability to completely rebuild via the draft right now. Phoenix’s 2026 pick is controlled by Washington. They would have to get extremely creative to set that stage. A retool in Phoenix is much more likely.
This one is tougher to gauge.
The Brooklyn Nets are currently tied for fifth-worst team in the league, giving them strong lottery odds this summer. This was expected. After all, the Nets, even with a healthy Mikal Bridges and a full roster, were not a good team last season, closing the year 20-41 in the final three quarters of the season. The Rockets ended up with the #3 pick (Reed Sheppard) as a result of Brooklyn’s mediocrity.
However, if the Rockets had not placed that pick back in Brooklyn’s hands, would the Nets be better than this?
Brooklyn brought in a new coach in Jordi Fernandez that has had a positive impact. They have dumped off players, such as Dennis Schroeder and Dorian Finney-Smith, that impacted winning. The bar to make the play-in in the East (.415 winning percentage) is obscenely low, with Brooklyn being just five wins away from it at the moment.
And on top of that, Brooklyn did have lots of draft capital that they could have moved to try to win now.
It’s very tough to say as you don’t know if a team with Bridges still in Brooklyn might have actually been worse than this current squad, but you could make a case that the pick the Rockets would have ended up with from Brooklyn this season would be eerily similar to the one they will end up getting from Phoenix this year.
Again, this is a tough call.
As part of the trade, the Rockets got control of the Dallas Mavericks’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected, of course). While there’s really no way of knowing what a pick will be five years out, we did know that Luka Doncic would be just 29-30 years old that season and it was fairly etched in stone that he would be the core piece of a Dallas squad that season.
Enter chaos in Dallas.
Doncic was shipped out in the trade that shocked the world, which could have a major impact on the Rockets. Dallas’ current core of Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis will be 37 and 36 years old that season, respectively.
On paper, the value of that pick shot up.
Right now, the outlook on these picks looks strong. One source stated off the record that they feel the 2029 Phoenix pick is the best pick asset out there that is owned by another team. The Rockets would be reluctant to add that one specifically into any trade unless it’s for a truly legitimate star.
But if there is any lesson that the NBA teaches us over and over again, it’s that it’s very hard to predict where a team will be a year from now, much less three years from now.
Can the Rockets pressure Phoenix and leverage the ownership they have of their draft capital to get what they really want (Booker) from them? Could a Suns retool around Booker and Beal, with the right pieces and assets acquired from a Durant trade, significantly change their on-court outlook and cap sheet — which in turn could damage the value of the picks Houston controls?
Bottom line is it has worked out well this season, and the future forecast at the moment is promising. The current value of those future picks appears strong. What will likely determine history’s final grade for this trade will be how it sets them up for the trade to come, and that’s where fans will be looking to Stone and the front office for action starting this summer.
fyrebear
June 3, 2013 at 11:49 am
Great writeup! Howard & Harden would be an awesome core to build a championship team around. Makes sense for everyone. I think Howard would flourish in Houston and being paired with an easy going unselfish star player like Harden would be perfect. Once Howard signs his contract I think we will see the end of all of that ‘drama’ and he goes back to being the top post threat in the NBA.
rocketsfun
June 10, 2013 at 2:03 pm
Harden not selfish? Look at the lost games led by Harden in the past season, Harden made a lot of turnovers and missed shots but still didn’t let other players as key person. He always passed the ball to others until the last 2 seconds. That’s very selfish play. He tried all means to get his stats look good. That’s selfish. He didn’t make others better only himself. Howard with harden? I didn’t see any contender teams but the gossip hype for the sports news. I think that’s the purpose of why Morey wants to sign him– to make Rockets more famous in the NBA. Everybody knew Howard is such a childish adult. Needs to be spoiled too much. He will damage the good chemistry.
34 2 11
June 13, 2013 at 6:49 pm
rocketsfun Your English is muddled but your ignorance is crystal clear. James Harden is as unselfish a player you’ll find at his position.
Your words echo the hollow criticisms of a certain “player specific” collective whose sole objective is to prop up their hero at all costs, even to the detriment of the team. I think that is why you and your compatriots are so against the Rockets bringing in A-level talent because you fear it will further diminish the significance of your favorite player.
The addition of Howard to this Rockets team is the best of all possible moves. It puts the Rockets is a position of contention with anticipation and expectation we haven’t seen since the arrival of Tracy McGrady.
surreALEX
June 3, 2013 at 11:51 am
Good write up. Howard and Harden!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.suite678.com
dasgda
June 3, 2013 at 12:22 pm
Uhhhhh you forgot to mention the team he is going to the ATL Hawks. Paul/Horford/Howard>>>>>>>>>>>Harden/Howard and it really isn’t close.
BimaThug
June 3, 2013 at 1:30 pm
dasgda If the salary cap comes in at $58.5 million (as expected), then both Dwight and CP3 would have to sign at a discount to team up in Atlanta, likely a bigger discount than Lebron, Bosh and Wade gave Miami in 2010. Not saying it won’t happen, but the Rockets would be able to pay Dwight more to play with Harden, Parsons, Lin, Asik, Beverley and multiple good young PF prospects than Atlanta could reasonably pay him if the Hawks were also adding CP3.
jahunter221
June 4, 2013 at 7:56 am
Get off the crack
jahunter221
June 4, 2013 at 7:57 am
Get off the dope atlanta
ramnale
June 4, 2013 at 9:10 am
dasgda Well that was stupid. You just added a player whos not even on your team(Paul) just to try to look better than us. You know if you put Horford/Howard against a Harden/Howard, that wouldnt even be close. As for me, I wouldnt mind picking up Garnet or Gasol if the Howard trade doesnt go thru.
kevC
June 3, 2013 at 12:38 pm
Where is the bullet for “finest strip clubs”?
LetItBurnUSA
June 3, 2013 at 12:54 pm
It all comes down to what’s more important to Howard. The glamor of Hollywood and more guaranteed money(for now) or the opportunity to win right away. If it’s the former, he remains a Laker. If it’s the latter, he either becomes a Rocket or maybe an Atlanta Hawk.
da_juice
June 3, 2013 at 7:05 pm
Good read, I also like that there’s been more articles up lately. I’m just trying not to get my hopes up too much.
Mathloom
June 4, 2013 at 3:50 am
Great analysis. I’m convinced that, if Howard doesn’t join, both the Rockets and Howard will be worse off. If he genuinely is basing his decision on the ability to win a championship in a 3 year window (before he can opt out) then we are the best bet. None of the Lakers, Dallas or Atlanta can offer him a shot at the title in all 3 of those seasons. Equally important, Harden is the best player of anyone on all 4 rosters. It’s also a bit far fetched to think that returning to contender status in 2014 is a given for the other teams.
Mathloom
rampak
June 4, 2013 at 3:51 am
Except for playing under mchale and chinese market, other teams can also offer howard the same things.yet, if there is one thing kobe can teach, is that you don’t have to play with a chinese to be big there.Mchale is a hall of fame pf, who refused to play one of his four pf.Your proposed trade for garnet, doesn’t make sense for celtics.Asik’s offense is too raw. The only reason celtics will pursue asik is to pair him with garnet
phil
June 4, 2013 at 2:35 pm
This is nonsense. Dwight has not gotten better in the low post, freethrows, jumpshots, etc. His basketball iq is questionable. His strongest asset is defense and it has been several years since his peak. He relies on his athleticism like stoudemire and has not learned the.skills and has been more and more injury prone. Do you want.a 20 million a year amare stoudemire called superman
JB012
June 5, 2013 at 5:01 pm
@phil 100% this. Howard IS NOT worth it. There’s plenty of other bigs with WAY less risk. Rockets fans who want Howard to Houston are caught up in the hype.
fyrebear
June 6, 2013 at 8:34 am
@JB012 @phil In Dwight Horward’s worst year (playing hurt coming off surgery) he was 3rd team All NBA at C. DH has his warts like any NBA player, but he is leagues better than Amare, especially defensively.
“There’s plenty of other bigs with WAY less risk.”
Please tell us the “available” bigs for which the Rockets can choose from that have the ‘ceiling’ to propel the Rockets to the next level in a way that DH12 has the ability to.
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:08 pm
Your not understanding my comparison. Amare used to average bigger numbers than dwight until he lost his athleticism(injurys). Amare’s game lacks fundamental skills and that’s why he’s not affective anymore. Dwight also relies on his athleticism and doesn’t have the fundamentals so an injury could make him a non factor as well. If he can’t jump over people he can’t score.
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:21 pm
I would go after our need, pf. Ideally a derrick favors or maybe d.cousins. If not then split the time with jones & robinson only! This is the youngest team in the league and the 23-24 year olds will only get better with time, don’t believe anyone that thinks we have to rush. We need a legit post player
Ryan
July 5, 2013 at 7:24 pm
fyrebear “Please tell us the “available” bigs for which the Rockets can choose from that have the ‘ceiling’ to propel the Rockets to the next level in a way that DH12 has the ability to.”
Exactly. As Morey said when he traded for Hasheem Thabeet (where is he these days, anyway?), we need a big man, and you can’t trade for proven big men in this league because teams won’t give them up.
Understand, I’m not totally sold on him either – he’s got a bad back and arguably a worse attitude – but there’s no question that the Rockets just got the attention of every team in the league.
phil
June 4, 2013 at 2:54 pm
There’s also the issue of the drama dwight causes because of his unstable mentality. You would not able to start asik.& dwight(scoring, ft’s, jumpshots, etc) or bring asik off the bench(too good). Big men don’t get healthier as they age and the rockets style is not gonna help. He’s got a quitter mentality, magic, lakers
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:35 pm
I would also demote mchale to assistant and bring in jeff van gundy. He’s the best defensive coach out there with tons of knowledge and experience. I would never ever trade an asik for aging kg, trading a bright star big man for a past his prime about to retire is ludacris!
EricHeard
June 5, 2013 at 6:24 am
Howard + Harden = H-town
Dadakota
June 5, 2013 at 6:34 am
Great article, it would be awesome to cheer for a contender again.DD
jahunter221
June 6, 2013 at 9:48 am
Preach Dakota preach!!!!!””
solid
June 6, 2013 at 9:55 am
Agree with everything except the owner having “multiple championships.” A bit of a reach don’t you think? He bought them, didn’t earn them. And he hasn’t done much with the “twenty years” until recently.
formido
June 7, 2013 at 12:59 pm
I’d say Lin is “pretty good” at pick and roll. 🙂 Morey said in a recent interview that he was the 5th best pick and roll player in the league:
http://houston.cbslocal.com/2013/05/09/gm-daryl-morey-defends-jeremy-lin/
PhiSlammaJamma
June 9, 2013 at 12:13 pm
I don’t see the logic the same way. The Lakers hold all the cards. They have the better team, they have the bigger star, they have a better lifestyle, they have the history, they attract more free agents, and they have the better coach. They don’t have youth, and they don’t have China. But seriously, they own us more we than we own them. So for me, the logic falls to the Lakers. That said, Howard is not logical. He’s emotional. And so I do think there is a chance to brainwash him into coming here. But the logic all lies with the Lakers and I’m just being honest. So if it comes down to that, they will win. They won the last time. They have won this war many times before. They will win it again.
MikeMcMannes
June 10, 2013 at 12:11 pm
Rarely do I find a post that is wrong on nearly EVERY point…but alas, I have found another.
rocketsfun
June 10, 2013 at 2:07 pm
Last year Rockets signed Jeremy lin for Asian markets. this year, Rockets wants to sign Howard for American markets so that NBA or sports world will talk about Huston everyday. Howard and Harden can make contender? Kobe Bryne and Harward, and Nash all together could not make title contender. Rockets needs a best PF to help the team for title contender not the dram queen.