As the Houston Rockets set to host the Phoenix Suns tonight, it seems the right time to take a look back at the trade that linked these two franchises together for the foreseeable future.
This past June, the Rockets made a trade with Brooklyn that sent back to the Nets control of their 2025 and 2026 unprotected first-round picks. In exchange, the Rockets received a large chunk of Phoenix’s future (2025, 2027, 2029) and control of the Dallas Mavericks’ 2029 first.
In essence, the Rockets traded one pick and one swap for two picks and two swaps. All unprotected.
If I’m going to discuss the current outlook of this trade, I have to be honest about how I saw it at the time of the move. While I didn’t hate this trade initially, I definitely didn’t love it either.
I liked that the Rockets increased their overall trade assets. I also liked that they extended the timeline to be able to make a bigger trade and I also appreciated that they kept control of the 2027 Brooklyn swap.
But I didn’t like that the Rockets gave up what seemed like the more established value (Brooklyn) for a more uncertain gamble (Phoenix). The Rockets did not control a “tanking runway” of picks to offer back to Phoenix — all of the picks Houston got in the deal were in staggered years (’25, ’27, ’29). I also felt Brooklyn, who badly needed to rebuild, got away with paying market value to get their picks back despite the fact that the Rockets invested years in watching those picks appreciate up to the point that they had the Nets completely over a barrel.
Net-net: I felt like more certainty was traded for less certainty and it was more of an equitable trade for both teams rather than Brooklyn paying dearly to get back the things only the Rockets could offer.
There were two ways I thought this trade could pay dividends: The Suns needed to flame out immediately, as in this season (unlikely), or the Rockets could trade all those pick assets as part of a deal for a real superstar in the next 12-18 months (more likely).
In a testament to how quickly change can occur in a very unpredictable NBA, four things have happened that have been positive indicators for the Rockets in making this move.
While Phoenix had major salary cap issues, dealing with the second apron, they didn’t appear to have problems on the court. They jumped out of the gate 8-1 and looked like a legitimate contender behind their star trio of scorers in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Given Houston controlled Phoenix’s pick this year via a swap, it looked like the Rockets would come up empty-handed on the trade this season.
That changed quickly.
Injuries, serious depth concerns and a lack of a defensive identity has sent Phoenix spiraling. Booker’s availability has been inconsistent, forcing Durant to carry the load, while Beal has not quite fit in at all. Their financial limitations, thanks to owner Mat Ishbia’s all-in spending spree, have handcuffed their ability to improve the roster around the three stars.
The Suns are sitting 11th in the West, having gone 22-34 since that hot start, and are currently trying to catch a depleted Dallas squad to get back into the play-in picture.
As of right now, the Rockets project to end up with a lottery pick (albeit a late one) this season out of the trade.
Because the Suns struggled so hard after the start, they tried to make a major move at the deadline but could not unload Beal, in large part due to his no-trade clause.
As a result, they may have made a misstep: They openly tried to trade Durant, which inevitably became public news.
Now? Durant will almost assuredly be traded this summer — likely to a destination that he handpicks. This means the Phoenix Suns will have to look at all possibilities for their future, including potentially having to give Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office a call.
But keep in mind, the Rockets can not offer Phoenix the ability to completely rebuild via the draft right now. Phoenix’s 2026 pick is controlled by Washington. They would have to get extremely creative to set that stage. A retool in Phoenix is much more likely.
This one is tougher to gauge.
The Brooklyn Nets are currently tied for fifth-worst team in the league, giving them strong lottery odds this summer. This was expected. After all, the Nets, even with a healthy Mikal Bridges and a full roster, were not a good team last season, closing the year 20-41 in the final three quarters of the season. The Rockets ended up with the #3 pick (Reed Sheppard) as a result of Brooklyn’s mediocrity.
However, if the Rockets had not placed that pick back in Brooklyn’s hands, would the Nets be better than this?
Brooklyn brought in a new coach in Jordi Fernandez that has had a positive impact. They have dumped off players, such as Dennis Schroeder and Dorian Finney-Smith, that impacted winning. The bar to make the play-in in the East (.415 winning percentage) is obscenely low, with Brooklyn being just five wins away from it at the moment.
And on top of that, Brooklyn did have lots of draft capital that they could have moved to try to win now.
It’s very tough to say as you don’t know if a team with Bridges still in Brooklyn might have actually been worse than this current squad, but you could make a case that the pick the Rockets would have ended up with from Brooklyn this season would be eerily similar to the one they will end up getting from Phoenix this year.
Again, this is a tough call.
As part of the trade, the Rockets got control of the Dallas Mavericks’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected, of course). While there’s really no way of knowing what a pick will be five years out, we did know that Luka Doncic would be just 29-30 years old that season and it was fairly etched in stone that he would be the core piece of a Dallas squad that season.
Enter chaos in Dallas.
Doncic was shipped out in the trade that shocked the world, which could have a major impact on the Rockets. Dallas’ current core of Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis will be 37 and 36 years old that season, respectively.
On paper, the value of that pick shot up.
Right now, the outlook on these picks looks strong. One source stated off the record that they feel the 2029 Phoenix pick is the best pick asset out there that is owned by another team. The Rockets would be reluctant to add that one specifically into any trade unless it’s for a truly legitimate star.
But if there is any lesson that the NBA teaches us over and over again, it’s that it’s very hard to predict where a team will be a year from now, much less three years from now.
Can the Rockets pressure Phoenix and leverage the ownership they have of their draft capital to get what they really want (Booker) from them? Could a Suns retool around Booker and Beal, with the right pieces and assets acquired from a Durant trade, significantly change their on-court outlook and cap sheet — which in turn could damage the value of the picks Houston controls?
Bottom line is it has worked out well this season, and the future forecast at the moment is promising. The current value of those future picks appears strong. What will likely determine history’s final grade for this trade will be how it sets them up for the trade to come, and that’s where fans will be looking to Stone and the front office for action starting this summer.
fyrebear
May 31, 2013 at 11:43 am
Not surprised about the Trob “shopping/trade” leak here. Better to do this now to get better value than like the Miami/Beasley situation where their hand was forced. On July 1st, the Rockets want no obstacles in their way to make a full max offer to DH12.
clutchfans
May 31, 2013 at 11:49 am
fyrebear You’re right. I would tend to think the Rockets will wait until they know, simply because most teams won’t be under the cap until then anyway, but the Rockets aren’t strangers to making the move even if they don’t have a firm commitment for the bigger move. They amnestied Luis Scola without any guarantees and dumped Kyle Lowry for a future pick as well. They may simply be OK with the cap room and a pick for T-Rob, knowing that if they do fall short in the Dwight chase that they can use those pieces/flexibility in a bigger move down the line (as they did eventually in landing Harden).
RedRedemption
May 31, 2013 at 12:48 pm
I wish we could keep Robinson. He’s extremely raw, but I feel like with the right development he could become at least a serviceable role player. -RedRedemption
clutchfans
May 31, 2013 at 1:52 pm
@RedRedemption The problem is serviceable role players are guys that Daryl Morey can acquire in his sleep. I think with a guy like T-Rob, you would hope that some skillset he has can become elite or well above average. Best bet there is rebounding. He’s certainly energetic and athletic, but if he’s not a good fit for a team with a set style that is trying to win 50 games minimum, how does he get the time to develop and (more importantly for the Rockets’ selfish purposes) increase his trade value?
RollingWave0720
June 2, 2013 at 9:35 am
clutchfans
RollingWave0720
June 2, 2013 at 9:36 am
Should also note that, Raw players sometimes develop after the end of their rookie contract, which makes it a rather bad deal for the team that held on to said rookie contract ( see Jermaine O’Neal.)
DHYLNP
May 31, 2013 at 1:03 pm
Agreed. The Rockets have a VERY specific and VERY immediate need– cap space neccesary to chase a max FA. This limits their leverage and the range of potential trade partners.
Carl Herrera
fyrebear
May 31, 2013 at 1:47 pm
DHYLNP That’s why they most likely leaked this Trob shopping info now to maximize their ROI. If the Rockets waited until July, they would have to take much less value back like Miami did with Beasley.
Koolaid
May 31, 2013 at 1:22 pm
Royce White for Josh Smith. Set it up Daryl!
Remii
May 31, 2013 at 2:08 pm
They should be looking to trade T-Rob regardless the Rockets have too many PFs and he’s not the best one.
They say there’s a sucker born everyday so if Morey can find a GM who’s willing to trade for Royce… Go for it.
basketballholic
May 31, 2013 at 4:28 pm
Nice article. Just 2 points I’d like to remind you of.
Point 1: The limited trade market for TRob is offset by the limited draft market of this draft class. Realistically, if TRob was in this draft, he’d be a top 10 pick. Mark Deeks stated he’d be the #1 pick. Now, I don’t know about that. But when I look at the crap shoot of this draft after about pick 6, then I could easily see TRob going in the top 10 here. Yes, his value is distorted somewhat and lessened somewhat by his rookie campaign. But it’s no more distorted than trying to figure out if Trey Burke for instance is going to be anything more than DJ Augustin in this draft.
Point 2: We’ve got 4 guys all playing the PF position coming off their rookie deals. We really don’t have minutes to give 3 of them much less 4. So, don’t forget there could be more than 1 guy shipped out…and it may not necessarily be Royce White that is shipped out. Consider the possibilities of trading out 2 of 3 of TRob/DMO/Jones….now what value do you have? Specifically what draft pick value do you have…either in this draft or in future drafts?
I’ll be surprised if we settle for a couple high second rounders in a trade for TRob. If that’s all the value he has, I wouldn’t be surprised if we went ahead and pulled the trigger to move both DMO/TJones. 2 of the 3 of these guys should get us a lottery first rounder….either in this draft or a future draft….at least.
clutchfans
May 31, 2013 at 4:47 pm
basketballholic Thanks — good points here. On Point #1, I could be convinced that Thomas Robinson is worth a top ten pick this year, but that’s part of the limited market I’m talking about … that first round pick this year has a cap hit, so unless there is a lot of creativity, the Rockets can’t get both top value and a clean cap wipe. For example, Austin Rivers, the 10th pick last year, had a starting salary of over $2.2M. So while his current value may be good when compared to this weaker draft, it doesn’t translate to the future picks (2014 is expected to be a strong draft) that you would think the Rockets need to get clean cap room now.
On point #2, I agree completely. I don’t know if any of the young PFs will be ready to make the jump to 30+ minute a night guy for a contender, which is what the Rockets would be judged as if they sign Dwight (bye bye “youngest team in the league” talk). I could see a bigger move for a starting PF, but they need to net a little more cap room first somehow to get to the max for Dwight.
basketballholic
May 31, 2013 at 5:41 pm
clutchfans basketballholic Creativity…..put together the trade…TRob and our 2014 first rounder for the top 10 pick in this year’s draft and a second rounder. Then execute it this way….Trade TRob for the future second rounder…moves out the salary…allows for the Dwight signing…..then complete the agreed to original deal by trading our 2014 first rounder for the 2013 first round pick we had the other team make for us and they are holding on their roster.
MateoFisher
May 31, 2013 at 5:09 pm
Not even a little interest from Detroit or New Orleans? I know both those teams have young bigs with potential already, but I would think both are also still trying to stockpile as much young talent as possible, and would bite at the right price.
DHYLNP
May 31, 2013 at 6:59 pm
Atlanta won’t be helping Houston create cap room since they are going after CP+DH. Houston will most likely have traded TRob before ATL is out of the CP+DH pursuit.
carolbmt
May 31, 2013 at 7:34 pm
I think T-Rob’s value is only that of a high-mid second round pick.
JonathanLovelace
June 1, 2013 at 10:29 pm
What about Sacremento?
Because that would be hilarious.
howlatthemoon
June 23, 2013 at 4:29 pm
JonathanLovelace I hope not.
da_juice
June 1, 2013 at 11:08 pm
My money’s on him going to the Bobcats. As you said, they were high on him last year’s draft. Biyombo hasn’t turned the corner yet, and for a team as bad as them- they need to acquire as much talent/potential as possible. I can’t see the Hawks taking on salary until after DHo or CP3 have signed (doesn’t help us out then) and Phoenix already has several PFs (and I personally think they will sign Josh Smith).
It be great if we could dump Royce and Trob without taking any salary back.
howlatthemoon
June 23, 2013 at 4:28 pm
I hope T-Rob gets his chance to shine. I watched a video about all the tragedy he and his sister have been through, and it made me cry….He wanted to be with the Bobcats from the start, I hope he gets his chance with a young team, and he flourishes.
abology96
April 9, 2016 at 5:49 pm
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abology96
April 9, 2016 at 5:49 pm
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abology96
April 9, 2016 at 5:49 pm
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