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For the Rockets, winning in 2012 would be nice, but losing might be better

Pardon the dust around here – I confess I had very little love for the NBA during the lockout. I can’t think of anything that drains a fan’s passion more than watching pro sports greed on full display, to the point of canceling games because they can’t come to an agreement on how to split billions of dollars. I could talk about the state of the economy and how the NBA doesn’t relate to the average Joe just trying to pay his bills, but it was really more about the back-and-forth that grew so tiresome. It’s like discussing the interest rate and amortization schedule of Scarlett Johansson’s mortgage ad nauseam for five months — that’s not why I’d be interested in her and this is not why I’m interested in the NBA.

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Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Houston Rockets coach Kevin McHale

Daryl Morey and Kevin McHale will have to make some tough choices about how to build the Rockets

Pardon the dust around here – I confess I had very little love for the NBA during the lockout. I can’t think of anything that drains a fan’s passion more than watching pro sports greed on full display, to the point of canceling games because they can’t come to an agreement on how to split billions of dollars. I could talk about the state of the economy and how the NBA doesn’t relate to the average Joe just trying to pay his bills, but it was really more about the back-and-forth that grew so tiresome. It’s like discussing the interest rate and amortization schedule of Scarlett Johansson’s mortgage ad nauseam for five months — that’s not why I’d be interested in her and this is not why I’m interested in the NBA.

However, there is something else that is tempering my enthusiasm about this season.

Apparently, the Rockets want to win now.

New Rockets coach Kevin McHale said it’s on him if Houston doesn’t make the playoffs this year. Rockets GM Daryl Morey took it a step farther, adding just before the lockout started that the Rockets want to be the first team to rebuild without suffering a losing season.

“Leslie [Alexander] has an approach I totally agree with,” said Morey. “He really believes that we need to turn the corner while remaining competitive. That’s the plan. I do think being terrible is definitely the way to get better in the NBA, but it’s not the way Mr. Alexander wants to go about it. He wants to turn the corner, get back to having a strong foundation while remaining competitive. He feels the Houston fans deserve that.”

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I take a hard look at the situation the Rockets are in and I’m struggling to understand why they would take this approach.

The Rockets are just seven months away from feasting on the free agency buffet of 2012 with potentially double-digit millions in cap room. It’s unlikely that even half of the Rockets current roster will still be wearing the uniform in 2012-13. Unlike the past two seasons, there is no superstar in Houston’s back pocket, no hope of contending “when Yao Ming returns.”

And there’s one other key element – the 2012 NBA Draft is expected to be one of the best in years (Anthony Davis could be something), but if the Rockets make the playoffs in 2011-12, they hand over their own first round draft pick to the Nets, courtesy of the Terrence Williams trade (the Rockets will have the New York Knicks’ first round pick, assuming it’s not in the top 5, from the Tracy McGrady trade and the Minnesota Timberwolves’ second round pick from the Brad Miller trade).

Combine all those facts and it’s not hard to realize that this sardine can-packed, 66-game bastardization of a season is poised to be the biggest lame duck year for the Houston Rockets since they sold off Moses Malone to the Sixers 30 years ago. Losses may just be wins.

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Several weeks ago, my nephew called me to tell me he was only one piece away from winning a reward at McDonald’s Monopoly, a gimmicky game where you collect pieces representing monopoly property in the hopes of getting the right combination to land the big prize. Of course, I didn’t have the heart to tell him the catch, that there are ridiculously rare pieces that you need in order to win big. If you weren’t aware that the system was weighted like that (and my nephew wasn’t), you could feel pretty proud of yourself for building up the entire board minus a few key pieces, thinking, “I’m so close — all I need is that one final piece, and JACKPOT!”

That’s the Houston Rockets right now. They have collected all the secondary pieces – some more unique than others – but not a single piece that isn’t replaceable. They’re only a piece or two away from legitimately contending, but unfortunately those pieces are Boardwalk and Pennsylvania Ave., and the sad truth is the value of those pieces is so great that you’d give up every chip you have and then some to get just one of them.

Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Moses Malone, Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and now Dirk Nowitzki. The harsh reality (and poorly-kept secret) about the NBA is that one or more of these 11 superstars have been on the roster of 31 of the last 32 Championship teams. Which current Rocket would you put in that class? Having a superstar isn’t a luxury – it’s mandatory.

Priority number one, two and three should be acquiring an impact player or laying the groundwork to do so, and that means player development, trades for the future, improving draft position and maximizing 2012 cap room. The Rockets don’t have to be committed to a long haul rebuild – those are the types of assets that are a lot easier to flip for a superstar than it would be dangling Chase Budinger and Hasheem Thabeet. But if the Rockets strike out in 2012 free agency, as they did in their pursuits of Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony, then there is something to fall back on. All this should put “Winning in 2011-12” fairly low on the totem pole, somewhere between chicken nachos sales and corporate marketing of T-Will’s tweets.

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Let me be clear – I’m not talking about kicking the ball out of bounds and losing games on purpose. That’s absurd. However, do the Rockets have to strongly consider letting Chuck Hayes walk? Yes. Do they have to seriously explore trade options for Luis Scola and Kevin Martin? I think so. Do players like Patrick Patterson, T-Will, Courtney Lee and Marcus Morris need to see more time? Probably. Cap room, draft picks and young players to trade — the Rockets should enter the summer of 2012 with all three at their disposal.

The Rockets have consistently stated that they plan to follow the “Celtics model”, signifying that they hope to make trades that will catapult them to contender status, much like the Garnett and Ray Allen heists did for the Celtics in 2007, however the similarities between the two situations are fading. The Rockets no longer have an established superstar under contract, as the Celtics did (Paul Pierce), and Boston had two trade chips the Rockets can’t match — a top 5 lottery pick and a 22-year old, 6-foot-10 big (Al Jefferson) that many felt could be a 20-10 guy for years.

Boston had one other thing Houston has been unwilling to have – a losing record. The Celtics were dead last in their conference and the second-worst team in the entire NBA, yet two trades made them NBA Champions the very next season. Winning culture and ticket sellouts didn’t take years to develop – they sprouted overnight.

When the Rockets let Rick Adelman go, I praised management for saying that they needed change, that they needed to alter their core. Morey summed it up beautifully —

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“The mistakes that are done across the league are [by] teams that stabilize on a foundation that wins you games and maybe preserves jobs but they’re not making the tough choices, with either players or in other areas, that get you the improvement you need and the change you need to get to where you want to be,” said Morey.

We’re at that point, confronted with another tough choice, and the Rockets can’t afford to simply engage the cruise control on another .500 season. Yes, Morey could stun us all in short order and pull off a trade that renders this all moot, making winning an immediate priority, but barring foundation-altering change before Santa’s sleigh arrives, the Rockets should strongly consider taking a step back. They may feel Houston fans deserve a competitive team every season, but it would be a mistake to disappoint the fans in the long-term by being afraid to disappoint the fans in the short-term.

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Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

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Houston Rockets

How the Kyrie Irving Injury Impacts Rockets

Houston’s draft positioning and offseason plans could be impacted by Dallas

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Kyrie Irving Injury

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving was injured Monday night and the news dropped on Tuesday that the knee injury is serious — a torn ACL in his left knee that will end his season and a good portion of next season as well.

Brutal. I can’t think of an NBA team that imploded faster than the Dallas Mavericks.

You trade away a 25-year-old phenom who just hoisted you on his back en route to the NBA Finals a year ago. You cashed in that golden ticket to go all-in on a trio of aging stars in Kyrie, Anthony Davis, and Klay Thompson.

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Bold strategy, Nico. Let’s see if it pays off.

(Narrator: It’s not paying off.)

The Mavericks had some interesting potential this year and maybe the next couple of years once everyone was healthy, but now? Their star guard is likely out until the calendar year 2026 and Klay and AD aren’t getting any younger nor more durable. The Mavericks may have actually swapped their future for a present that never arrives — and Dallas GM Nico Harrison has to be feeling overwhelming pressure right now.

So how does this impact the Rockets?

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For starters, Houston has a game remaining on the schedule against Dallas on March 14th at Toyota Center — Davis may or may not be back for that game.

More importantly, Dallas is the 10th seed in the West at the moment, just 3.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns (11th seed). The Rockets control Phoenix’s first-round pick unprotected this season via a swap. We need as many West teams as possible ahead of Phoenix to keep them out of the play-in/playoffs and to push them as deep into the lotto as possible.

This complicates that. Phoenix’s remaining schedule is the toughest in the NBA by a good margin, with plenty of games left against the league’s best teams, so it still looks promising overall — but we’re talking about Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. They can still get hot at the right time while Dallas may struggle.

So keep a close eye on that. The good news is the Portland Trail Blazers are one of the hottest teams in the league and they are (shockingly) nipping at the Arizona squad’s heels.

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Taking a look ahead to the offseason, the Kevin Durant Pursuit will be big.

This one is a little more complicated for Houston. The Rockets really want Devin Booker but, as of now, the Phoenix plan appears to be to trade KD this offseason and retool around Booker. The Rockets will have interest in Durant but they’re not going to sell the farm (prospects and all the picks) for a 37-year old like they would for Booker.

Three teams that I’ve heard a lot about from Rockets circles that will be in the mix are Houston, Minnesota and Dallas — Timberwolves and Mavericks have been considered the main competition. But, a lot of this will depend on Durant himself and where he wants to play at this stage of his career.

Keep in mind also, if the Suns are “retooling” around Booker and Beal (holding the no-trade clause), then they could be placing a higher priority on win-now players over the return of their own draft assets. The Rockets definitely have the best assets overall to offer up in any trade package between those three teams, but if Phoenix does prefer finding the right ready-to-win players around Booker/Beal, that gives Dallas and Minnesota a real chance.

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This injury “may” take Dallas out of the equation, and they are/were definitely a contender for KD’s services given his past relationship with Kyrie and the way Dallas was positioned to win right now. Does KD at his age want to wait for Kyrie to be healthy?

And one last friendly reminder: The Rockets control that Dallas 2029 first (unprotected).

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Rockets Sign David Roddy to Two-Way Contract

Former first-round pick has played with the Grizzlies, Suns and Hawks

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David Roddy Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a move on Monday, signing former first-round pick David Roddy to a two-way contract.

The two-way spot opened up after the front office signed Jeenathan Williams to a standard four-year, $8.2 million contract (with friendly team options all along the way).

Roddy is 6-foot-5 and 250+ pounds but sports a 6-foot-11 wingspan. He was taken with the 23rd pick in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft — six selections after the Rockets drafted Tari Eason. A standout in college, Roddy averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game during his junior season at Colorado State.

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Roddy, who turns 24 later this month, is a physical player who can play multiple positions. He’s a solid rebounder for his size/position. He has played in 165 games over three seasons with the Grizzlies, Suns, Hawks and most recently Sixers, averaging 6.2 points and 2.9 rebounds per game.

The guard/forward has not shown efficient shooting, however — he’s a career 30.5% three-point shooter and just 68.4% from the line. His defense is better inside than out.

Ultimately, it will be those two things — three-point shooting and defense — that will determine his chances of carving out a consistent role in the league.

All in all, it’s a low-risk signing and the Rockets get a look at a prospect that fits their age timeline.

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Houston a potential landing spot for Ben Simmons post-buyout?

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Ben Simmons Houston Rockets

ESPN NBA analyst Brian Windhorst said on Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline show that Brooklyn Nets forward Ben Simmons is working on a buyout and the Houston Rockets is a potential landing spot for him.

“Cleveland and Houston are two situations for Ben Simmons,” said Windhorst.

Rockets coach Ime Udoka was an assistant coach in Philadelphia in 2019-20 when Simmons was with the Sixers, before injuries took a significant toll. In fact, Udoka, when speaking about Amen Thompson earlier this season, brought up some comparisons to Simmons.

“The skill set is there, and it’s something that’s unique with his speed, athleticism, size, passing ability, and all those things,” said Udoka of Thompson. “I coached somebody, Ben Simmons, who had similar traits… as far as size and ability to push the pace, and find guys and finish. There are some similarities there.”

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Both Thompson and Simmons are known for their elite athleticism, defensive versatility, and ability to create opportunities in transition.

However, can Simmons help the Rockets today? That’s the tough question.

Simmons has played in 33 games this season, averaging 6.2 points, 6.9 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks in 25 minutes a night. He does not shoot threes (like, at all) — he has only attempted two threes in the past three seasons combined.

Ideally, he does not play in front of your young forwards of Amen, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. and on that basis alone, I think I would pass. But, Ime loves defensive dogs and he could use some extra ballhandling on the roster. You can see that there’s little in the way of offensive organization when Fred VanVleet is out.

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There would be a comical full circle moment though if the Rockets did sign Ben Simmons, considering the Rockets were heavily criticized for trading James Harden in 2021 to Brooklyn instead of to Philadelphia for Simmons. The Rockets clearly made the right choice there.

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Rockets pick up another second-round pick in deal with Hawks

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Cody Zeller

The Houston Rockets are working the phones to do a little more asset management.

After acquiring a second-round pick from Boston to take on Jaden Springer’s salary, the Rockets made another similar move, absorbing the contract of Cody Zeller this season to get back a 2028 second-round pick.

Ironically, that pick is Houston’s own 2028 second-round pick that the Rockets sent to Atlanta in 2023.

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The Rockets waived Springer to make roster room for Zeller. They will likely do the same with Zeller in order to make room for a buyout signing in the coming days or weeks.

It’s a small move but it’s another good one on the margins. These second-round picks add up. The two the Rockets got in the past couple of days — Boston’s 2030 second and Houston’s own 2028 second — could be eventually combined in a deal that nets the Rockets a solid role player down the line. Houston did exactly this last season when they acquired Steven Adams from Memphis.

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So quick grade? Easy A. Solid asset management work by Rockets GM Rafael Stone and credit to Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta for being willing to spend millions just to get some extra seconds.

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Rockets Pick Up Jaden Springer, Second-Round Pick in Trade with Celtics

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Jaden Springer Houston Rockets

The NBA Trade Deadline is just over 24 hours away but the Houston Rockets have already made a move.

OK, it’s not that kind of move, but Rafael Stone and the front office did make a trade on the margins on Wednesday, picking up Jaden Springer and a 2030 second-round pick from Boston.

The Rockets leveraged their open roster spot and salary situation to take the contract of Springer off the hands of the Celtics, who are saving a ton in luxury tax payments by making the move. It’s smart business by the Rockets, who are doing this for a second-round pick in 2030.

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Now, usually a Celtics second-round pick is not worth much, but this is five years out so it’s a quality asset as far as seconds go. In today’s NBA, these kinds of picks have grown in value as key assets for being in a position to land solid role players. With the Rockets planning on being a playoff team for the next several years, this addition could prove useful in addressing future roster needs.

This trade framework between Houston and Boston may not be new to you. If you watched or listened to the ClutchFans Podcast on Monday, David Weiner, aka BimaThug, literally called out this exact possibility of the Rockets taking on Springer and landing a second-round pick.

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As for Springer himself, this was a player I liked quite a bit in the 2021 NBA Draft and I wanted the Rockets to take him at the Josh Christopher spot. He has not quite panned out just yet. He’s got good size for a point guard (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) but is not a strong playmaker and has not been incredibly accurate as a shooter (25.0% from three).

But he does have good defensive potential. Does that get Ime Udoka’s attention at all? Possibly, but the Rockets likely will get an end-of-the-bench look at him for the rest of the season before his contract expires this offseason.

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