Houston Rockets
How Paolo Banchero would fit with the Houston Rockets
A look at how the Duke power forward would fit with Jalen Green and the Houston Rockets, now and in the future
We are now less than a week away from the NBA Draft and this one will be a doozie for Houston as they now hold three first-round picks, #26, #17 and the highly-anticipated #3 pick.
While we can’t say with 100% certainty who will be available at the third pick on June 23rd, the overwhelming buzz since the lottery results were announced has been that Auburn’s Jabari Smith and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren are considered the top two prospects, going in some order to Orlando with the #1 pick and OKC at #2.
That could change, but it doesn’t look likely. That would leave Duke’s Paolo Banchero on the board as the sure-fire pick for the Rockets at numero tres
If you’ve followed my comments on the forums or on Twitter, you know I’m much higher on Jabari and Chet for the Rockets than I am for Banchero, but I have to place some perspective on it: The Rockets will still be getting a top-tier talent with upside to be a special player if they stay at #3. Let’s look at how this power forward would fit the current and future Rockets.
Strengths
Banchero’s size is not exaggerated. While some prospects may say they’re 6’10, 250 pounds, there’s no rounding up in Banchero’s case. He looks every bit of his listing.
He is the most polished offensive prospect in the draft, able to handle the ball very well for his size. He’s not uncomfortable facing up the defender as far out as the three-point line, which is rare for a big. Any player remotely resembling a traditional four will have an issue defending Paolo’s fluidity while guards and wings will find it challenging to defend his size and physicality.
He’s got excellent footwork and a spin move that he uses on drives that reminds you of a Pascal Siakam. His arsenal of pullups and moves from mid-range to the basket reminds you of a Carmelo Anthony — bigger and not as quick, but with better vision.
For his size, Paolo has excellent passing skills. His assist percentage would be in the 95th percentile among NCAA players. He sees the floor really well and has plus court vision. There’s potential there for high-level reads out of the high and low post. He could both initiate and finish a pick and roll, which is a rare advantage to have in a player, while also being very effective on short rolls.
This highlight at the 2:06 mark was one of the more impressive plays I saw this year from Paolo, showing both his ability to get to the basket and find his teammates.
Duke has been a home-away-from-home for many of the top one-and-done prospects in college basketball and they have a track record of not featuring some of their best players. Jayson Tatum and Brandon Ingram were both capable of more as Blue Devils. Tatum, in particular, made a significant impact right away as a rookie with Boston. While those players aren’t ideal comps for Paolo, it does suggest he might be able to showcase more in the NBA than he did for Coach K.
Weaknesses
Paolo is not a great three-point shooter, hitting just 33.8% from deep, but he was strong from long range in the NCAA Tournament (10-19 3P in 5 games). He shot between 72-73% from the line, which is pretty good, and his shooting form looks clean so it’s not a mechanics issue. It’s very reasonable to project him to eventually be average in the three-point department, if not better than that.
Banchero’s plus effectiveness in college was mainly 14-15 feet and in, where he took almost 63% of his shot attempts. Outside of 15 feet, he wasn’t special.
Banchero is very crafty and smooth, but doesn’t destroy you with burst or elite athleticism (there’s no real weakness here, but it’s not a major strength). He draws comparisons to a late-stage Blake Griffin, which is to say a very strong, big and versatile creator but not the elite athlete we saw in Griffin early on with the Clippers.
Paolo does almost nothing to move the needle defensively. He’s a big body and not completely terrible on this end, but he’s not a rim protector, a lockdown defender or particularly great on switches. He’s prone to lapses in effort, which is a concern. He’s not a plus defender by any stretch. In some games, including Duke’s loss to North Carolina in the tournament, guards hunted him on switches, which is a tactic that has become very popular in the NBA (particularly in the playoffs). He can definitely hold his own defending the post and he’s not bad stopping straight-line penetration. He also has shown the ability to communicate to his teammates defensively, but the lateral speed is not there to stay with guards and wings consistently and he relied heavily on a rim protector to cover for him (Mark Williams).
There are very fair questions about what exactly Paolo does for your team when the ball is not in his hands, and in a nutshell, that’s the big reason he might be available at #3.
Comps
The best comp might be a 2020-21 Julius Randle as far as Paolo’s scoring role as a point-power foward on a team. Two NBA execs told Michael Scotto of HoopsHype that they compare Paolo’s upside to that season of Randle, when he put up 24-10-6, hit 41% from three and made the All-Star Game. Player for player, Randle is not a good comp — he’s possibly stronger and quicker than Banchero and plays more brutish, but he would fall short of Paolo in height, smarts, craftiness and vision.
Detroit Pistons Blake Griffin, Juwan Howard and Jabari Parker also make some sense for their offensive versatility or ability to score as a four. On the offensive side of the ball, a comp of a Ben Simmons-like player who isn’t afraid to shoot and has a three-point shot that has to at least be defended also has some merit.
Fit In Houston
Banchero would be a clear core piece in Houston and the Rockets would have to start looking at their foundation as “Paolo Banchero and Jalen Green”, with the potential that Alperen Sengun and Kevin Porter Jr. could eventually be part of that. Clutch City would feature two gifted and marketable offensive players who potentially could get big baskets in crunch time while also selling tickets at the gate. When you consider where Houston was as a franchise 18 months ago — rudderless and without any top young talent — that’s pretty incredible.
If the chemistry is there between Banchero and Green, there are several ways they could play off each other to be dangerous on the floor. While we’re not talking about Kobe and Shaq, there’s still potential there for them to be a superstar inside-out pairing. They’re different players, but Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns might be a closer model.
The Rockets have several players that are best operating with the ball in their hands, including Green, KPJ and Sengun. Does adding a fourth starter like that bring benefits or pose a problem?
The new starting frontcourt, Paolo and Sengun, would be a gifted 4-5 combo on the offensive end as both have solid hoops IQ, can create for others with their passing ability and can get you a bucket in the post or mid-range. Some of the passing and reads from these two could be a lot of fun to watch and there’s room for growth.
But… the spacing of the floor would be a big issue, especially when you place a priority on clear driving lanes for guards like Green and KPJ to operate. And the defensive concerns would be, well, significant. Very significant. Neither of your two bigs would offer much rim protection, putting more pressure on your perimeter defense — and neither is particularly strong in that department, either.
If the Rockets take Paolo, Sengun is probably not the right fit long-term as the starting center. That’s just the overwhelming likelihood. There would be no need to make any changes over the next year — after all, neither has reached their 20th birthday — but if this weakness proves to be glaring, it becomes mandatory to add a bigger center with defensive upside that backs up Sengun, or more likely, starts over him.
In my opinion, Banchero is the better prospect between the two. So if it comes down to eventual change, Sengun will likely be the target of an adjustment. And it won’t be just Sengun. Drafting Paolo is going to put a few of the young players on the current roster under a microscope. Flanking Green and Banchero with strong defensive options at the three and the five is mandatory and I don’t see much of that on the current roster (Usman Garuba may prove me wrong). Over the next year, I would like to see a more aggressive front office in moving young players for better fits.
Final Thoughts
There is almost no bust potential with Paolo — at a bare minimum, he should be a big presence and solid inside scorer in the NBA. He’s my pick to win Rookie of the Year because he’s the most NBA-ready and should produce out of the gate.
But it comes down to this: Does Paolo project to be an elite scorer in the league? I’m talking about a potent top 10-15 offensive force where defenses have to focus on stopping him? Perhaps even a primary facilitator? If so, the Rockets would be getting the guy who should go #1 in the Draft. Both Orlando and OKC would be silly to pass on him if the path for him to get there is clear. There is no argument there from me.
That may seem an unfair standard since the bar on offense is not as high for Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren, but the brutal truth is it’s not. Jabari and Chet potentially do so much more for your team to impact winning beyond scoring, including defense, spacing and playing off the ball. Banchero will improve in other areas, but it’s unlikely he will do anything else at an elite level in the NBA. It’s got to come from his scoring and facilitating. Just based on the role that he will play to maximize that skillset, you do not want just a “top 50” guy here. If you’re going to give the ball to a player in a high-usage role who doesn’t boost your defense, he can’t be just a good scorer. He has to be elite at it in time if the ultimate goal is to be good enough to win a title.
But there is a possibility here, even if I haven’t been the biggest believer in it, where Paolo could ultimately be that guy, a true superstar player, and perhaps the prospect who proves to be the best player in the draft. That’s enticing.
In the end, however, the Rockets don’t have their choice of the three prospects.
The Magic and Thunder will ultimately dictate which big is available to Houston at #3. If the Rockets passed on Jabari or Chet for Paolo, I’d be second-guessing, but taking him third with those two off the board is not something you can really be upset about, especially when the Rockets could have easily been picking 5th in this draft. There is a guarantee here to get a high-upside prospect, and that has the rebuild continuing on a great path.
Houston Rockets
Podcast: Doncic to Lakers, Fox to Spurs and the Trade Deadline for the Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
How the stunning Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers impacts the Houston Rockets
Dallas did the unthinkable by trading their superstar – what does this mean for Houston now and in the future?
Late Saturday night, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick.
I know, it doesn’t seem even remotely real. This is the most shocking sports trade of my lifetime. I can’t think of one bigger nor one more unbelievable.
The Mavericks have to know something about Doncic that we don’t. It’s being reported that his poor conditioning, weight issues and looming supermax contract were the biggest factors, but this is a young phenom who is hypercompetitive. He might very well haunt Dallas for a long time.
It’s an absolutely fascinating move. So how does this impact the Houston Rockets now and in the future?
The Rockets Couldn’t Get Luka?
The first reaction is of course, “Luka Doncic was available?!?” That leads to the inevitable question of why the Rockets didn’t get involved.
The simple answer is they didn’t know. Nobody really did — and it would not have mattered if they did.
This is a classic example of how sometimes in the NBA, it doesn’t matter how big of a treasure trove of assets you have. What matters is having the right single asset. Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison wanted Anthony Davis and that was that. The Rockets, with all their youth and picks, would not have been able to compete for Luka because they couldn’t help Harrison with his goals.
At the same time, this has to be maddening for Rockets GM Rafael Stone and the Houston front office, who have tried to position themselves for just such a trade when it became available. Doncic is 25-years old and was seen as an untouchable top-5 player, a dream target, the kind of player teams fantasize about stealing — yet the Mavericks booted him out of Dallas like a bad tenant in the dead of night. No league-wide bidding war — just unceremoniously traded while 28 other teams sat clueless, never even getting a shot at the prize.
Dallas could have had their pick of top young players and draft choices had they made this an actual competition so this trade will be questioned and second-guessed for many years to come.
Rockets Control Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick
There is a silver lining for the Rockets and that’s the control they have on Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected).
The Houston Rockets own the right to potentially receive or swap the Dallas Mavericks first-round pick in 2029.
Kyrie Irving will turn 37 years old that season and Anthony Davis will turn 36. pic.twitter.com/JTwz0PA871
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) February 2, 2025
Dallas traded that pick to Brooklyn in the deal for Kyrie Irving in 2023. Brooklyn gave control of the pick to Houston as part of the deal to get their own picks (2025, 2026) back this past summer. So the Rockets control the best two first-round picks (unprotected) out of Phoenix, Dallas and Houston’s own first in the year 2029.
In this deal, Dallas’ core got older. Irving will turn 37 in the 2028-29 season and Davis will turn 36. This is four years away so a tremendous amount can change between now and then, but on paper it is a strong positive indicator for the value of that pick.
Keep in mind, the Rockets are unlikely to actually use this draft pick — they’re more likely to trade it to strengthen their current roster. So, what actually happens to Dallas four years from now isn’t as important as how teams around the league perceive the value of that pick right now and in the near future.
This looks like a potential win for Stone, Patrick Fertitta and the Rockets front office.
Impact on Western Conference
Both the Lakers (currently 5th seed) and Mavericks (currently 8th) are potential first-round matchups for the Rockets this postseason.
Los Angeles: The Lakers may have taken a short-term hit, but if Luka’s conditioning issues can be fixed, this trade completely revitalizes their future. Before this move, Los Angeles was still relying on a 40-year-old LeBron James with no clear path forward, especially with their draft picks already limited. Now, they’ve managed to land Doncic, who put up 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game last season at just 24 years old, in exchange for a 31-year-old Davis. That’s highway robbery.
The NBA just handed the Lakers another superstar lifeline (like Shaquille O’Neal, like Pau Gasol, like Chris “Basketball Reasons” Paul, like LeBron James, like Anthony Davis) and they took full advantage.
But right now, this is an odd fit. The Lakers have no size. More moves have to be on the way here so stay tuned on how the Rockets match up with this squad.
Dallas: Luka had been out for over a month and the Mavericks have been slipping. Dallas says they want to focus on defense and they do get that in Davis. They went from relying on two forces on the perimeter to putting the ball in Kyrie’s hands as the leader and leveraging their size in Davis, Derrick Lively (when he returns healthy) and Daniel Gafford.
The Rockets have excellent perimeter defenders, but their lack of interior rim protection makes it tough to handle Davis and any additional size next to him. This could be a real challenge for Alperen Sengun. While Sengun offensively dominated Gafford in their last matchup, he struggled against Lively — and Davis is on a whole different level.
But can Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Dillon Brooks take out the head of the snake in Kyrie? Three-point shooting efficiency will likely be the key against Dallas. I think this is a tougher matchup for Houston right now, but long term, I think this really helps the Rockets. We will find out soon as Houston faces the Mavericks (without Lively) this Saturday.
One last potentially positive note to close on: Texas is fertile ground for free agents. No state income tax and warm weather have always been draws for NBA players, so having young superstars like Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic playing for your two rivals in the state had the potential to make things problematic when recruiting players trying to win a championship. Dallas loses that draw and becomes a team with a much smaller window… and who wants to live in San Antonio over Houston?